Scenario
While there are many things that can lead to a societal collapse, and put you and your loved ones in peril, nothing short of full-scale nuclear war would hit as hard or as fast as a nation-wide collapse of the energy grid. Most every system we rely on at present requires electricity to function, be it food production and storage; water purification and distribution; home heating and cooling; life-sustaining medical equipment in hospitals and homes; cellular communication towers; traffic controls; and on and on. Many of these systems have generator back-ups, but those are meant to bridge short-term power outages, and require a resupply of fuel, the reliable delivery of which is likely to be compromised without electricity to run the pumps to fill the trucks, or the computers that coordinate deliveries. And of course people that support all of the aforementioned functions will need to come to work…not something that can be counted on when the security of their own families is in jeopardy in the predictable chaos that will ensue during a widespread blackout. Remove electricity and the complex machine that is our interdependent society grinds to a halt.
There are at least four potential causes for a grid collapse. (Brace yourself: this gets unpleasant fast.)
1. Coronal Mass Ejection (solar event)
The sun occasionally releases high-energy bursts of plasma known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). These can vary in intensity, as well as in speed, taking anywhere from hours to days to reach earth. Once they meet earth's magnetic field, they cause a geomagnetic storm that can overload electrical circuits. These are related to, yet different from, solar flares, which reach us in 8 minutes (travelling at the speed of light). Solar flares can cause issues with navigation and communications signals, but they do not create the extensive damage to electrical circuits on the ground as CMEs can. Solar flares often precede CMEs, and can give us advance warning. Ice-core evidence, as well as historical accounts of the visual indicators of extreme solar activity, indicate that CMEs have been impacting earth for millennia. The first major CME to hit earth in the electrical age is known as the ‘Carrington Event’, damaging telegraphs as it continued over two days in 1859. Note: it would be naive to assume that the Carrington Event was the biggest punch the sun could throw at us; however, since it's the biggest solar event in somewhat recent history, it is now used as a benchmark to assess impacts of future solar events.
Another large CME impacted earth for three days in 1921, dubbed the ‘New York Railroad Storm’, as it triggered an electrical fire at Grand Central Terminal, and damaged telegraph systems worldwide.
1989 saw a small CME crash the Hydro-Quebec system temporarily.
In 2012, a Carrington-sized CME narrowly missed earth, which had it not, would have had a devastating effect on a society which was by then much more dependent on electricity than it had been in 1859 or 1921.
It’s not a question of if a major CME will impact earth, but rather of when another one will. Maybe it won’t be for centuries; maybe it will be tomorrow afternoon. There’s nothing you can do to stop it, but plenty you can do to be ready for it. Just how devastating would a Carrington-level CME be on present-day society? Because the geomagnetic storm from CMEs can last 24+ hours, every part of our rotating planet gets its moment in the sun. Long transmission lines amplify the damaging effect of CMEs, which is why power grids are so vulnerable, as are computers that are hardwired into control systems of utilities such as water and natural gas distribution. If the CME takes out enough major transformers, the power won't be coming back on. There is no inventory of replacements; they weigh hundreds of tons and take months to years to build and install (and how do they get built without electricity?) Given much of the First World’s dependence on electrical systems and complex electronics for the production and delivery of food, water, heat, and so much more, the global rate of death after a Carrington-level event today would be astronomical, which is both sad and ironic considering the death toll from the actual Carrington Event in 1859 was zero. Technology made our lives better? Our reliance on it may just be what kills us.
2. EMP Attack
Multiple nations have the capability to conduct an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack against the US. This involves the detonation of a nuclear device at high altitude above the target, which does no immediate harm to those on the ground, but emanates high-energy waves that take out electrical systems and electronic circuits, in a manner similar to CMEs, but at a greater initial intensity, doing much more damage. It's possible to disguise the origin of the EMP attack, making retaliation less of a concern. The EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security has assessed the threat posed by Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, both individually, and as a combined effort against the US and others, as described in the final link below. (Spoiler: they all have the ability, and arguably the motivation, to EMP the US, which would plunge much of Canada and Mexico into darkness too.)
3. Physical Attack
The grid is also vulnerable to a coordinated physical attack, which could be carried out by terrorists on the ground, without the need for state sponsorship. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission indicated that disabling as few as nine key transformers may be enough to take down America’s grid.
4. Cyber Attack
American Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that a cyber attack could bring down the grid.
Former Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano sounded the alarm of a looming threat of large-scale cyber attacks during her tenure, but to date, no meaningful steps have been taken to mitigate this risk.
Aftermath
Note: Some of what follows is fact; some is informed opinion. Worst-Case Survival Blog encourages readers to do their own research, form their own opinions, and make survival plans that fit their circumstances.
A massive CME or an EMP attack would create so much damage to the grid and electronics that infrastructure repair is not likely possible. The affected nation(s) will be in immediate and utter chaos. Dr. William Graham, Chairman of the 2004 Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack stated during a Congressional Hearing in 2008, that the death rate in America in the first year after an EMP attack could be in the range of 90%. THREAT POSED BY ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Anyone thinking that a government commission could be influenced by a political agenda, can turn instead to a risk assessment done by insurer Lloyds of London in 2013. Addressing specifically the effects of a grid collapse caused by a Carrington-level CME, they arrived at a lower, yet still staggering, death rate of 20-40 million Americans within 1-2 years.
Coordinated physical or cyber attacks on the grid would cause less immediate chaos than an EMP attack, as they wouldn't damage the electronics in traffic signals, computers, or cell phones, and as such, trigger less panic than an everything-fails-at-once scenario would. Many critical systems would continue to run temporarily on battery and/or generator power, allowing some form of emergency response and public messaging; however, this would be temporary, as batteries and generators are stop-gap measures, and would only sustain systems for a number of hours or days. This would give those who have prepared in advance a window to enact plans before things really boiled over. If the grid attack irreparably damaged transformers, replacements could take months or even years to obtain and install (if that is even possible in a nation in the throes of chaos). It's likely that the death toll would ultimately mirror that of a CME or EMP attack, as no power means no food or water for the majority of the population. Transformative Times: Update on the U.S. Transformer Supply Chain | T&D World
FEMA?
Many people will expect the government to come to their aid. Overwhelmed and under-resourced for something of this scale, governments will be unable to reverse the situation. No amount of money can be thrown at the problem after the lights have gone out…it will simply be too late. There may be no 911 to call, both because telephones and computerized dispatch systems could be rendered inoperable, and/or because of a lack of personnel, as many emergency responders will stay home to protect their own families. It can be expected that military resources will be drawn in to protect government officials and key locations, particularly if the grid collapse was a potential act of war. Martial law will be declared. People will be responsible for their own survival.
What Then?
After much of the population has died from starvation, disease, and violence, most of those who remain will likely fit into one of the following groups:
Political figures and government officials who retreated to stocked bunkers, likely supported by elements of the military who were similarly sheltered.
Private citizens who had prepared in advance and had the plans, skills, and supplies necessary to survive.
Unprepared people who banded together into violent gangs to steal from others; however, this will be a short-lived proposition, as they will eventually run out of easy food sources, as stores will be looted clean, and most people (those who haven’t stockpiled), will have consumed all of their food and be equally as desperate. Without rule of law, some will stoop to a level of nastiness too vile to even describe here. Members of these loosely organized gangs will turn on one another, die at the hands of other violent gangs, or be eliminated by those who have the skills and tools to defend themselves. This will be a high-mortality group.
If the event was not global, it can be expected that other nations will eventually send humanitarian aid; however, in the early days, the sheer number of affected people will make an effective rescue unrealistic, and much foot-dragging can be expected as no nation would be able to care for 300 million starving people. There would also be a cascading food crisis in countries that had been relying on US food exports ($177 billion worth in 2021). Effective relief efforts of some kind might eventually be expected, but not before much of the American (and Canadian) population had died.
As long as America retains its nuclear capability, as it could be expected that it would, it is likely safe from immediate ground invasion/occupation; however, it would cease to be able to interject in conflicts elsewhere in the world (a possible motive for an anonymous EMP attack from a state with ambitions of expansion).
If the grid collapse was caused by a massive solar event (CME), then the devastation would likely be worldwide, in varying degrees. The bad news then is that no one is coming to help. The good news is that no one is coming to invade. Those left standing a year or two after the event will have an opportunity to rebuild society. In a glimmer of positivity in what can only be viewed otherwise as horrible, the extreme reduction in global population will lead to a much greener planet. Maybe that’s how nature wins. And she always wins eventually.